Fluctuations in exchange rates

Exchange rates display

A market based exchange rate will change whenever the values of either of the two component currencies change. A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply (this does not mean people no longer want money, it just means they prefer holding their wealth in some other form, possibly another currency).

Increased demand for a currency is due to either an increased transaction demand for money, or an increased speculative demand for money. The transaction demand for money is highly correlated to the country's level of business activity, gross domestic product (GDP), and employment levels. The more people there are unemployed, the less the public as a whole will spend on goods and services. Central banks typically have little difficulty adjusting the available money supply to accommodate changes in the demand for money due to business transactions.

The speculative demand for money is much harder for a central bank to accommodate but they try to do this by adjusting interest rates. An investor may choose to buy a currency if the return (that is the interest rate) is high enough. The higher a country's interest rates, the greater the demand for that currency. It has been argued that currency speculation can undermine real economic growth, in particular since large currency speculators may deliberately create downward pressure on a currency in order to force that central bank to sell their currency to keep it stable (once this happens, the speculator can buy the currency back from the bank at a lower price, close out their position, and thereby take a profit).

Asset market model

The explosion in trading of financial assets (stocks and bonds) has reshaped the way analysts and traders look at currencies. Economic variables such as economic growth, inflation and productivity are no longer the only drivers of currency movements. The proportion of foreign exchange transactions stemming from cross border-trading of financial assets has dwarfed the extent of currency transactions generated from trading in goods and services.

The asset market approach views currencies as asset prices traded in an efficient financial market. Consequently, currencies are increasingly demonstrating a strong correlation with other markets, particularly equities.

Like the stock exchange, money can be made or lost on the foreign exchange market by investors and speculators buying and selling at the right times. Currencies can be traded at spot and foreign exchange options markets. The spot market represents current exchange rates, whereas options are derivatives of exchange rates

Balance of payments model

This model holds that a foreign exchange rate must be at its equilibrium level - the rate which produces a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience reduction in its foreign exchange reserves which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. The cheaper currency renders the nation's goods (exports) more affordable in the global market place while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports are forced down and exports rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and the currency towards equilibrium.

Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Their flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus, balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the asset market model.

Uncovered interest rate parity

Uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) states that an appreciation or depreciation of one currency against another currency might be neutralized by a change in the interest rate differential. If US interest rates increase while Japanese interest rates remain unchanged then the US dollar should depreciate against the Japanese yen by an amount that prevents arbitrage. The future exchange rate is reflected into the forward exchange rate stated today. In our example, the forward exchange rate of the dollar is said to be at a discount because it buys fewer Japanese yen in the forward rate than it does in the spot rate. The yen is said to be at a premium.

UIRP showed no proof of working after 1990s. Contrary to the theory, currencies with high interest rates characteristically appreciated rather than depreciated on the reward of the containment of inflation and a higher-yielding currency.

Bilateral vs. effective exchange rate

Bilateral exchange rate involves a currency pair, while effective exchange rate is weighted average of a basket of foreign currencies, and it can be viewed as an overall measure of the country's external competitiveness. A nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is weighted with the inverse of the asymptotic trade weights. A real effective exchange rate (REER) adjust NEER by appropriate foreign price level and deflates by the home country price level. Compared to NEER, a GDP weighted effective exchange rate might be more appropriate considering the global investment phenomenon.

Nominal and real exchange rates

• The nominal exchange rate e is the price in foreign currency of one unit of a domestic currency.
• The real exchange rate (RER) is defined as , where P^f is the foreign price level and P the domestic price level.

The RER is based on the GDP deflator measurement of the price level in the domestic and foreign countries (P,P^f), which is arbitrarily set equal to 1 in a given base year. Therefore, the level of the RER is arbitrarily set, depending on which year is chosen as the base year for the GDP deflator of two countries. The changes of the RER are instead informative on the evolution over time of the relative price of a unit of GDP in the foreign country in terms of GDP units of the domestic country. If all goods were freely tradable, and foreign and domestic residents purchased identical baskets of goods, purchasing power parity (PPP) would hold for the GDP deflators of the two countries, and the RER would be constant and equal to one.

Free or pegged

If a currency is free-floating, its exchange rate is allowed to vary against that of other currencies and is determined by the market forces of supply and demand. Exchange rates for such currencies are likely to change almost constantly as quoted on financial markets, mainly by banks, around the world. A movable or adjustable peg system is a system of fixed exchange rates, but with a provision for the devaluation of a currency. For example, between 1994 and 2005, the Chinese yuan renminbi (RMB) was pegged to the United States dollar at RMB 8.2768 to $1. China was not the only country to do this; from the end of World War II until 1966, Western European countries all maintained fixed exchange rates with the US dollar based on the Bretton Woods system.

Quotations

An exchange system quotation is given by stating the number of units of "term currency" (or "price currency" or "quote currency") that can be bought in terms of 1 "unit currency" (also called "base currency"). For example, in a quotation that says the EURUSD exchange rate is 1.4320 (1.4320 USD per EUR), the term currency is USD and the base currency is EUR.

There is a market convention that determines which is the base currency and which is the term currency. In most parts of the world, the order is: EUR – GBP – AUD – NZD – USD – others. Thus if you are doing a conversion from EUR into AUD, EUR is the base currency, AUD is the term currency and the exchange rate tells you how many Australian dollars you would pay or receive for 1 euro. Cyprus and Malta which were quoted as the base to the USD and others were recently removed from this list when they joined the euro. In some areas of Europe and in the non-professional market in the UK, EUR and GBP are reversed so that GBP is quoted as the base currency to the euro. In order to determine which is the base currency where both currencies are not listed (i.e. both are "other"), market convention is to use the base currency which gives an exchange rate greater than 1.000. This avoids rounding issues and exchange rates being quoted to more than 4 decimal places. There are some exceptions to this rule e.g. the Japanese often quote their currency as the base to other currencies.

Quotes using a country's home currency as the price currency (e.g., EUR 0.63 = USD 1.00 in the euro zone) are known as direct quotation or price quotation (from that country's perspective) [1] and are used by most countries.

Quotes using a country's home currency as the unit currency (e.g., EUR 1.00 = USD 1.58 in the euro zone) are known as indirect quotation or quantity quotation and are used in British newspapers and are also common in Australia, New Zealand and the eurozone.

• direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units
• indirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units

Note that, using direct quotation, if the home currency is strengthening (i.e., appreciating, or becoming more valuable) then the exchange rate number decreases. Conversely if the foreign currency is strengthening, the exchange rate number increases and the home currency is depreciating.

Market convention from the early 1980s to 2006 was that most currency pairs were quoted to 4 decimal places for spot transactions and up to 6 decimal places for forward outrights or swaps. (The fourth decimal place is usually referred to as a "pip"). An exception to this was exchange rates with a value of less than 1.000 which were usually quoted to 5 or 6 decimal places. Although there is no fixed rule, exchange rates with a value greater than around 20 were usually quoted to 3 decimal places and currencies with a value greater than 80 were quoted to 2 decimal places. Currencies over 5000 were usually quoted with no decimal places (e.g. the former Turkish Lira). e.g. (GBPOMR : 0.765432 - EURUSD : 1.5877 - GBPBEF : 58.234 - EURJPY : 165.29). In other words, quotes are given with 5 digits. Where rates are below 1, quotes frequently include 5 decimal places.

In 2005 Barclays Capital broke with convention by offering spot exchange rates with 5 or 6 decimal places on their electronic dealing platform^[2]. The contraction of spreads (the difference between the bid and offer rates) arguably necessitated finer pricing and gave the banks the ability to try and win transaction on multibank trading platforms where all banks may otherwise have been quoting the same price. A number of other banks have now followed this.

Exchange rate

Ju

Foreign exchange
Exchange rates Currency band Exchange rate Exchange rate regime Fixed exchange rate Floating exchange rate Linked exchange rate
Markets Foreign exchange market Futures exchange Retail forex
Products Currency Currency future Non-deliverable forward Forex swap Currency swap Foreign exchange option
See also Bureau de change

In finance, the exchange rates (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. It is the value of a foreign nation’s currency in terms of the home nation’s currency.^[1] For example an exchange rate of 95 Japanese yen (JPY, ¥) to the United States dollar (USD, $) means that JPY 95 is worth the same as USD 1. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets in the world. By some estimates, about 3.2 trillion USD worth of currency changes hands every day.

The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.

Clients

The Group's client base is dominated by retail clients, particularly in its Direct Market Access (DMA)CFD business.

[edit] Operations

First Prudential Markets offers a wide range of financial products and services to its retail and corporate customers. In addition to its core business of Contracts-For-Difference (CFDs), First Prudential Markets other principal products and services include:

• Futures
• Spread Bet
• Foreign Exchange (Forex)
• Funds
• Bonds

The range of underlying markets currently includes:

• Australian and international shares
• Global stock indices
• FX
• Metals
• Energies
• Commodities
• Options
• Interest rates

[edit] Online Dealing

In 2005 First Prudential Markets introduced webIRESS, a web-based solution developed by Iress Market Technology enabling FPM to offer online dealing to its retail and professional client base. First Prudential Markets client base increased significantly with the introduction of online dealing and now more than 90% of transactions are executed online.

[edit] Regulation

First Prudential Markets is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) in Australia.

International Expansion

In January 2008, First Prudential Markets European headquarters were established in the UK providing a springboard to offer CFDs, Forex, futures and spread betting across Europe.

First Prudential Markets

First Prudential Markets, commonly known as "FPM" or "FPMarkets" is an Australian based investment company offering over-the-counter (OTC) and exchange traded derivative products including direct market access (DMA) Contracts-For-Difference (CFDs), foreign exchange (Forex) and global futures contracts to its retail and professional client base. First Prudential Markets is a market leading DMA CFD and Forex provider.

In December 2007 FPM became a member of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and introduced the world’s first exchange traded Contracts for Difference (ASX CFDs) to its product listing.

The use of high leverage

By offering high leverage, the market maker encourages traders to trade extremely large positions. This increases the trading volume cleared by the market maker and increases his profits, but increases the risk that the trader will receive a margin call. While professional currency dealers (banks, hedge funds) never use more than 10:1 leverage, retail clients are generally offered leverage between 50:1 and 200:1^[2].

A self-regulating body for the foreign exchange market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.“ ^[17]

Not beating the market

The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game^[7] in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.

Although it is possible for a few experts to successfully arbitrage the market for an unusually large return, this does not mean that a larger number could earn the same returns even given the same tools, techniques and data sources. This is because the arbitrages are essentially drawn from a pool of finite size; although information about how to capture arbitrages is a nonrival good, the arbritrages themselves are a rival good. (To draw an analogy, the total amount of buried treasure on an island is the same, regardless of how many treasure hunters have bought copies of the treasure map.)

Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of gambler's ruin. In a fair game (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt.

The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.

According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' "^[15]

Paul Belogour, the Managing Director of a Boston based retail forex trader, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, "Trading foreign exchange is an excellent way for investors to find out how tough the markets really are. But I say to customers: if this is money you have worked hard for – that you cannot afford to lose – never, never invest in foreign exchange." ^[16]

Forex scam

A forex (or foreign exchange) scam is any trading scheme used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour" as of early 2008, according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ^[1] But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times ^[2]. "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal. ^[3] The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud." ^[4]

“In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists.”^[5]

In August, 2008 the CFTC set up a special task force to deal with growing foreign exchange fraud.”^[6]

The forex market is a zero-sum game^[7] , meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses, except that brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, technically making forex a "negative-sum" game.

These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits, ^[8] improperly managed "managed accounts", ^[9] false advertising, ^[10] Ponzi schemes and outright fraud. ^{[4] [11]} It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment. ^[12]

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.^[13]

An official of the National Futures Association was quoted ^[14] as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically..." Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds. ^[1] CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"

British Pound Weakens on House-Prices Decline Forecast

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

The British currency lost against most of the 6 main traded currencies as a government institution affirmed that the crisis in the real estate market will persist until 2012, shunning investors from pound-prices assets, and stopping last week’s rally versus the greenback and the yen.

British Pound Weakens on House-Prices Decline Forecast

July 22nd, 2009

The British currency lost against most of the 6 main traded currencies as a government institution affirmed that the crisis in the real estate market will persist until 2012, shunning investors from pound-prices assets, and stopping last week’s rally versus the greenback and the yen.

Euro Continues High as Demand for Safety Falters

July 22nd, 2009

The euro continued at high-levels versus the dollar and the yen, as stocks rallied and risk appetite damped demand for the safety of the Japanese and American currency.

Dollar Down as Risk Appetite Spurs Demand for Yield

July 22nd, 2009

The greenback posted a negative performance today as a decreased demand for safety made investors to leave the U.S. currency attracted to riskier assets in emergent markets.

Yen Declines as Stocks Rally Spurs Demand for Risk

July 23rd, 2009

The yen lost against all 6 major currencies as stocks continued a rally that is already the longest since 2003 on speculations that the global slump maybe ending, damping demand for the safe profile of the Japanese currency.

New Zealand Dollar Rallies on Corporate Earnings

July 23rd, 2009

The New Zealand currency is trading this week near to a nine-month high versus the U.S. dollar, as corporate earnings and stocks performance attracted investors to the riskier profile of the kiwi if compared to more conservative currencies like the greenback and the yen.

Chilean Peso Hits One-Week Low on Copper Prices

July 23rd, 2009

The Chilean currency had a weakening performance today, as the copper, one of the main exports of the South American nation declined, damping demand for the peso.

South African Rand Climbs on Corporative Fusion Speculations

July 23rd, 2009

The South African Rand climbed sharply today as a stake in one of the main South African mobile operators may be purchased by an Indian group, injecting money in the country and raising confidence for the rand outlook.